By David Byers.
Black Brick’s 2025 Property Market Predictions: Family Homes Flying, Super-Prime Facing Headwinds
As the property market enters 2025 with a sharply divided outlook, Black Brick’s Camilla Dell has been sharing her frontline perspective on where the opportunities and challenges lie — with her insights featured in The Times’ authoritative annual property predictions piece.
Dell highlighted one of the clearest trends Black Brick observed towards the end of 2024: fierce competition for quality family homes in well-connected outer prime London neighbourhoods. “Last year we saw huge competition in the market up to £2 million in four-bedroom Victorian terraces in West Hampstead and Fulham,” she told The Times — a dynamic driven by a combination of stamp duty-related behaviour, the end of non-dom status redirecting some buyer profiles, and growing demand from families priced out of private schools seeking good state school catchment areas.
The contrast with the super-prime market could hardly be more pronounced. Analysis by Beauchamp Estates showed just 40 sales of homes above £15 million in London in 2024, down from 54 the previous year, with total transaction value falling 34% to £856.5 million. Labour’s abolition of non-dom status has been the primary driver, deterring a cohort of international buyers for whom London’s tax environment has become increasingly unattractive.
Looking ahead, the key variables for 2025 include the pace of interest rate cuts — with economists polled by The Times forecasting at least four reductions — the impact of the stamp duty threshold changes coming into force on 1 April, and the potential influx of American buyers reassessing their options under the new US political landscape. For prime central London, forecasters expect a further 5% price fall, while more modestly priced regional markets are expected to hold up considerably better.
As featured in The Times.
Read the full article here.