By Ruth Bloomfield.
Particular towns and regions in Britain are starting to see pre-pandemic transaction levels, Ruth Bloomfield writes in The Telegraph this week.
New research is shining a light on an unexpected story in the UK housing market: while national transaction numbers have fallen sharply, a select group of locations — including several in prime central London — are trading at levels well above those seen before the pandemic.
According to analysis by Savills, Kensington & Chelsea and the Lancashire town of Clitheroe (in the Ribble Valley) currently top the table for the biggest increase in transaction volumes compared with 2019. In Kensington & Chelsea, transactions are running around 40% above pre-pandemic levels, while the Ribble Valley is up 17%. This matters because transaction volumes are widely seen as a leading indicator of housing market health — a sign of where buyers have both the confidence and the financial firepower to commit, even against a backdrop of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and concerns about future price movements.
The wider picture is far more subdued. HMRC data shows transactions nationally fell by almost 19% in the year to March 2023, while the Bank of England reported a 25.5% drop in mortgage approvals over the same period.
London’s Strongest-Performing Boroughs
Alongside Kensington & Chelsea, three other prime and inner London boroughs feature among the strongest performers nationally for transaction growth: Westminster, Hackney and Islington. Affluent commuter areas — including Epsom and Ewell in Surrey, Chichester in West Sussex, and Windsor and Maidenhead in Berkshire — also rank highly.
Outside the South East, transaction growth has been notably strong in the Ribble Valley, Burnley and West Lancashire — all benefiting from commuter appeal into Liverpool and Manchester — as well as Salford. Of the UK’s coastal markets, which saw exceptional demand during the pandemic, only Northumberland has sustained transaction levels above 2019.
Our View: Context Matters
As a Mayfair buying agency working across prime central London every day, we think it’s important to put these figures into perspective. Caspar Harvard-Walls, Partner at Black Brick, cautions against reading the Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster numbers in isolation:
“In early 2019 we had Theresa May as prime minister, we were going through the agony of Brexit, and there was the worry of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. Confidence was very, very low, and transactions were low. Comparing now to then is a comparison to a real low point.”
That said, there are genuine grounds for optimism in today’s market. As Harvard-Walls explains:
“Overseas buyers have certainly been returning to London. They are not worried about interest rates, it is all about confidence, and they are also benefiting from the weak pound. A lot of domestic buyers in these areas work in the financial markets and have done really well in the last couple of years so they also have money to spend.”
A renewed appetite for flats — an asset class that fell out of favour during the pandemic — has added further momentum. Taken together, Harvard-Walls believes prime central London is now “back to normal” after four challenging years.
What’s Driving Activity Elsewhere
Northumberland’s strong showing has little to do with overseas capital or City bonuses, and everything to do with lifestyle. Local agents point to a mix of established local movers and “boomerang” buyers — people returning to the area they grew up in or studied in, now that hybrid working makes a move away from major cities more feasible. Buyers can secure more space for their money here than in the South East, though prime villages and homes with sea or castle views command a significant premium, with several properties recently changing hands for over £1m.
Downsizers are another key pillar of activity nationally. With significant equity built up in family homes and little or no reliance on mortgage finance, this group is largely insulated from interest rate pressures — a pattern reflected in the strong performance of aspirational, well-connected towns like Clitheroe, which continues to draw commuters from Leeds and Manchester and families drawn to its schools, countryside and community feel.
The Black Brick Perspective
The data reinforces what we are seeing first-hand: prime central London’s recovery is real, but it is best understood against the low base of 2019 rather than as an unqualified boom. Confidence — driven by overseas buyer sentiment, sterling weakness and renewed interest in flats — is doing much of the work, rather than a fundamental shift in market conditions. For buyers navigating this landscape, understanding the nuance behind the headline transaction figures is essential to making the right decision.
Read the full article here.