Prime London Deal Numbers Rally As Buyers Become Hardened To Volatility
London’s prime property market has endured an extraordinarily unpredictable decade, starting off with the Brexit referendum, followed by a series of global conflicts, political and economic upheaval and the end of the non dom system.
And yet, the summer of 2026 has marked a turning point in prime transactions, according to estate agent Knight Frank. It recorded a 14 per cent increase in the number of deals in the three months to July compared to May to July 2025. Prime Central London (PCL) saw a three per cent lift in the same period.
“We signed up three new clients last week and we are getting loads of enquiries,” said Camilla Dell, managing partner at Black Brick. “It feels like there is real momentum.”
The picture is very different from last year, when fears of a Mansion Tax put the market into suspended animation for months in the lead up to the budget. This year, said Dell, buyers are sanguine about the impending financial statement. “It is not coming up at all,” she said. “Last year there was so much kite flying and uncertainty. This year, Andy Burnham has been upfront and said that he is not going to make changes to Stamp Duty and so it is very much business as usual.”
The profile of buyers is split fairly evenly between domestic buyers looking for a main home and international buyers who are either relocating completely, or seeking a London pied a terre. “Speculative investors have left the market,” said Dell. “The buyers that are left are looking for a place to live and they have stopped talking about politics and instability. That feels like the norm now.”
A driving force behind the uptick in deals is the relative affordability London now offers – according to the latest data from Savills, in June this year, prices in PCL were down 26.3% since the peak of the market in 2014 and prices continue to drop. Sale prices in Westminster, for example, fell almost £300,000 in the year to June, according to the data from the Office for National Statistics. Significantly, the reduction has put prices in the borough below the £1m mark for the first time in years, dropping from an average sale price of £1,145,000 in June 2025 to £854,000 this year.
“The drop in values across prime London is a sweetener for a lot of clients who have been waiting for some time to buy,” said Dell.
An Inspector Calls
Fresh details are starting to emerge about how the new High Value Council Tax Surcharge (HVCTS) – to be levied on homes worth £2m or more – will be implemented.
The first step in executing the tax will be a national valuation exercise for the first time since 1991.
Treasury minister, Dan Tomlinson, has confirmed that valuers from the Valuation Office part of HRMC, will be going door-to-door to value homes with homeowners who refuse to admit them, facing fines of up to £200. They will be particularly busy in the boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Wandsworth, Richmond upon Thames and Westminster. It is estimated that its residents will together pay £270m-per-year, half of the entire national HVCTS tax income.
Across London, around a million homes have sold for £2m or more according to the Land Registry, making valuing the capital’s property a gargantuan task. Homeowners will be invested in keeping theirs as low as possible. Although the current tax bands are reasonable, starting at £2,500 per year up to a maximum £7,500 per year, it is more than possible that they could increase in future, impacting on a property’s resale value.
Some owners will simply dissemble – a £200 fine is hardly a deterrent – and others will appeal against their valuation, which will further slow the process which is due to come into force in April 2028.
“I think that valuation will be most contentious in properties in the lowest band, from £2m to £2.5m,” said Tom Kain, partner at Black Brick. “The people who own these homes are not necessarily super wealthy and the band itself is extremely narrow.”
The tax will also put vendors into a bind on how to price their properties. “There will be a lot of focus on trying to buy at just below the different price bands, which will be hard for people whose property is worth, say, £2.1m or £2.6m,” explained Kain.
Dell agrees. “There will be a lot of bunching happening and I expect we will see a lot of people pricing their homes at £1.995m and £2.4995m,” she said.
As a reminder, here are the bands of the new HVCTS due to come into force in April 2028:
£2 million to £2.5 million: £2,500 per year
£2.5 million to £3.5 million: £3,500 per year
£3.5 million to £5 million: £5,000 per year
£5 million and above: £7,500 per year
Deals To Be Done On Homes Left On The Shelf
Price cutting continues to be a motif of the prime London market according to research from property analyst LonRes, which reports an annual sales price fall of almost eight per cent in the past year.
Of the homes which sold in July, more than half had at least one reduction in asking price. The average list price discount stands at 10.4 per cent off the original asking price – and this does not include any further cuts agreed between buyers and sellers during the negotiation process.
An interesting point for buyers is that how long a home languishes on the market is a key marker of how large the discount will be. So far this year, the average discount for homes selling in three months or less, has been less than four per cent. But the discount for those taking a year or more to find a buyer, was more than 19 per cent.
Tom Kain partner at Black Brick comments, “Serious sellers need to be listening to the mood music. Pricing a property too ambitiously from the outset can leave it sitting on the market for months, making it increasingly difficult to achieve the price the seller wants. The longer a property remains unsold, the more negotiating leverage a buyer tends to have.”
Camilla Dell adds, “Good estate agents should be advising their clients to price correctly from day one. As buying agents, we look beyond the asking price to understand how long a property has been on the market, why it hasn’t sold and, crucially, what is motivating the seller. That intelligence plays a critical role in how we advise our clients and how we approach negotiations. This year alone, we’ve secured discounts ranging from 3% to 16% for our clients. Equally, we’ve had to pay the asking price on some acquisitions to avoid losing the property to competing buyers. Every negotiation is different and understanding when to push and when to act, is key.”
Acquisition Of The Month 1: The Whiteley London, Bayswater, W2 – £: Confidential (£10,000,000 +)
Our North America-based clients were looking for a pied-a-terre for their regular visits to London and wanted a spacious, impressive property.
Security was a key concern for them and they were also keen to buy a new home.
Our extensive property search brought us to The Whiteley London, a newly completed period conversion of the British capital’s first department store.
The apartment we earmarked measures more than 3,000 sq. ft and with 6ft plus ceiling heights, the space feels airy and generous. The building has a full complement of residents’ amenities, including a gym, swimming pool and spa, plus a private member’s club and a Six Senses hotel.
Black Brick has an excellent relationship with the scheme’s developer and as a result, we were able to negotiate the purchase of this turnkey apartment to include all its furnishings, including artwork.
Acquisition Of The Month 2: Linden Avenue, Kensal Rise, NW10 – £1,900,000
Our US based clients regularly visit London for work and were keen to buy a base close to family in northwest London.
They wanted a house they could move straight into and we were able to find them a newly refurbished and extended family home, on a sought-after residential street, before it was launched on the open market.
The property was in a ‘move in ready condition’, has a private garden and at circa 2,100 sq. ft, offered plenty of living space as well as being in the perfect location for family get-togethers.
London’s family house market is hot right now, so viewing the house before the competition, thanks to our long-term working relationship with the estate agent, was a huge advantage for our clients, who were able to act decisively and snap it up before other buyers had even got through the front door.