By David Byers.
The likely new PM will have to face a building industry in the doldrums, stagnating property prices and buyers put off moving by tax. We lay out his options.
As the political landscape shifts with a new prime minister, property experts are closely watching what the incoming government’s housing agenda might mean for buyers and sellers in the prime London property market — and the picture is complex.
Data published by Savills indicates that the government is on course to fall significantly short of its five-year target of 1.5 million new homes in England, with projections suggesting fewer than 840,000 will be delivered by 2030. New housing completions fell 4.1 per cent last year to just over 190,000 — a troubling trajectory for a market already constrained by supply.
Stamp Duty: Long Overdue Reform
One of the most pressing issues for clients remains the stamp duty burden. The temporary threshold relief introduced in September 2022 — raising the first-time buyer threshold to £425,000 — was allowed to expire in April 2025, and Rightmove data shows that average asking prices in June 2026 are running 0.6 per cent lower than a year earlier, the biggest June fall recorded in 14 years.
Managing Partner at Black Brick Property Solutions, Camilla Dell told The Times:
“Any changes to abolish stamp duty will be welcomed. It’s a tax that disincentivises people to move both up and down the housing ladder.”
Andy Burnham has publicly backed replacing both stamp duty and council tax with an annual proportional property tax of 0.48 per cent of a home’s value. While this would remove the upfront transactional cost of moving, Dell raises an important question for existing owners who have already met substantial stamp duty liabilities:
“What about those people who have already paid hefty stamp duty bills? Are they now expected to start paying 0.48 per cent of the value of their home on top?”
It is a point that deserves a serious answer from any incoming administration. Meaningful stamp duty reform — while clearly desirable — is unlikely to be delivered quickly. We rate the probability of significant tax giveaways at 2 out of 5.
Top-End Market Pressures
At the prime and super-prime end of the market, rates reaching as high as 19 per cent combined with the abolition of non-dom status have weighed heavily on activity. These measures are unlikely to be reversed under a Burnham administration, given their political popularity with the Labour base.
Planning and Supply
The Planning and Infrastructure Act, which became law last December, gave planning officers significantly greater powers to override local planning committees — a notable shift in the planning landscape. However, the housing secretary has acknowledged that the tangible impact on completed homes is unlikely to be felt until the 2028-29 financial year. In the interim, many builders are sitting on unimplemented planning permissions rather than breaking ground.
Burnham has also pledged to prioritise social housing, calling for 500,000 homes for social rent by 2030 and £40 billion in dedicated investment — a significant step change compared to the fewer than 65,000 affordable homes completed across England in 2024-25.
Our View
The fundamentals of the prime London market — restricted supply, sustained international demand, and the enduring appeal of central London as a place to live and invest — remain intact. However, fiscal constraints are real, and we do not expect any incoming prime minister to dramatically alter the tax or regulatory environment for property in the short term.
As ever, the best strategy for buyers navigating this market is to work with specialists who understand the nuances of pricing, negotiation, and timing.
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