The US president has caused stock market turmoil. Why buyers and borrowers could be in for a wild ride
By Hugh Graham, David Byers and Carol Lewis
Just as everything seemed to be settling down after the rush to beat last week’s stamp duty tax hike, tariff turmoil has hit.
Twenty-four hours after the stamp duty deadline on April 1, President Trump declared “liberation day”, launching a global trade war that has led to stock market meltdown, initially pummelling the value of investments and pensions and unleashing uncertainty across the world.
Then, the president U-turned, telling reporters at the White House that people were “getting a little bit yippy”, and announced a 90-day pause in the higher rate of “reciprocal tariffs”. The FTSE 100 and 250 recovered to more than 8,000 points yesterday morning, in the biggest rally in more than five years.
However, given the president’s propensity to make seemingly contradictory announcements at a whim that can change the prospects of global economies, what is clear is that we have entered a period of unprecedented unpredictability which makes it near-impossible for people to plan what to do when making big decisions with their money. What does this mean for those hoping to buy or sell property, or take out a mortgage?
Is it 2008 all over again?
Whenever there is significant stock market uncertainty, some analysts look back with trauma at the 2008 financial crisis, which triggered job losses, left homeowners with easy-come mortgages sliding into negative equity, repossessions soaring and house prices dropping by about 20 per cent.
However, don’t panic. As the consequences of the autumn 2022 mortgage rate spiral showed, homeowners today have been far more extensively stress-tested than before the 2008 financial crisis, which means repossessions have stayed extremely low — and will continue to do so, even if further unpredictability sends markets into a fresh tailspin.
Matthew Swannell, the chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, a leading economic forecasting group, says: “A careful and measured approach should be taken when comparing the UK’s current economic circumstances with the global financial crisis, when UK GDP fell by more than 6 per cent and the unemployment rate increased to about 8 per cent.
“The global financial crisis led to a significantly deeper downturn than even the Office for Budget Responsibility’s most pessimistic tariff scenario, where GDP is estimated to fall by just over 1 per cent.”
What about the super-rich?
Camilla Dell, who founded her property consultancy Black Brick in 2007, just before the financial crisis, says the luxury end of London’s property was already a buyer’s market, even before Trump. High tax is putting off purchasers — stamp duty can be as high as 19 per cent for overseas buyers compared with 4 per cent in 2008 — with tax advantages to invest in buy-to-let gone and the non-dom regime abolished.
So, this turmoil is the latest in a series of causes of a market slowdown, rather than the primary trigger. “The result of stamp duty increases and non-dom tax changes have caused prices in London to decrease to levels not seen since the financial crisis,” she says.
Helen Whitfield, whose Butler Sherborn agency deals with high-end homes in the Cotswolds, says: “The conversations I’ve had with people who are buying at the moment, some of them are like, ‘I’ve just had £400,000 wiped off the value of my stocks and shares.’” However, up until this week she says the market had been going well with her phone “ringing off the hook” and she believes it will again, particularly as most of her buyers don’t need mortgages. “The Cotswolds isn’t dying on its feet yet,” she adds.
What about the rest of us?
For most of the market, though, uncertainty abounds. And when there is uncertainty over people’s finances and their investments, there is likely to be a slowdown, particularly among middle-class movers. For sellers, this means being realistic on pricing, while buyers are likely to negotiate more robustly.
The latest monthly survey of property professionals by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), covering March, found the weakest buyer sentiment since September 2023.
It said “three-month sales expectations point to a further dip in activity over the near term, but further ahead the outlook is not quite as downbeat with sales volumes expected to rise.”
Simon Rubinsohn, Rics chief economist, says: “The expiry of the stamp duty break was always going to lead to a pause in activity in the sales market. However, the latest results, and indeed the anecdotal remarks from respondents to our survey, suggest that the shift in sentiment has been aggravated by the slew of negative macro newsflow over the past few weeks.
“Looking forward, the impact on the market will in no small part depend on how the economy is affected by the emerging trade war and the response of the Bank of England to the shifting environment.”
Ashley Webb, a UK economist for Capital Economics, agrees the market may be more muted as buyers worry about their investments — given the propensity for the markets to dip, soar and dip again. “The fallout in financial markets could reduce households’ net wealth via pensions and investments, which in turn could weigh on consumer confidence.”
He notes that housing demand has always risen and fallen in line with households’ confidence. Capital Economics, however, has not yet adjusted its market forecast — predicting a 3.5 per cent rise in property prices in 2025 and 4.5 per cent next year.
Lucian Cook, the director of residential research for Savills, says: “Further economic uncertainty is likely to mean the continuation of a price-sensitive market through the spring, with activity dominated by needs-based buyers and sellers.”
Savills’ forecast, released after the spring statement, predicted transactions remaining slightly below their pre-pandemic average over the next five years, peaking at 1,150,000 in 2028 (there were 1,040,000 transactions last year). This may be further hit.
For those buying more affordable properties outside London and the south, the market is likely to be stronger than for those stretching themselves for pricier homes. Data published by Halifax on Monday showed a 6.6 per cent annual price growth to the end of March in Northern Ireland, where the average property price of £206,620 has scarcely recovered from its level during the financial crisis. Scotland (4.3 per cent) and Yorkshire and the Humber (4.2 per cent) come next, but pricier Greater London was registering an anaemic 1.1 per cent in property price growth.
Is property still a safe investment?
Timothy Hawe, the director of the Your Move estate agency in the Newcastle area, says the average value of properties across its 13 branches is £180,000 — and suggests sentiment in this market is strong, particularly because the rise in stamp duty didn’t affect this price point. “We’re not seeing people pulling out of deals or getting really nervous. The other reaction we’re getting is: aren’t bricks and mortar great? Property doesn’t have that massive fluctuation — people see it as a safe investment.”
Nathan Emerson, the chief executive of Propertymark, the membership body for the property sector, says: “Perversely [market disruption] creates an incentive for investing in property. Investing in property is for the long term. Buy-to-let isn’t as profitable as it once was, but there is a shortage of stock and oversupply of tenants and it’s a lot less volatile than the markets are.”
Is there good news for borrowers?
One reason for confidence is to be found in the mortgage market, with the possibility that borrowers may actually yield some benefit out of the world’s economy going into a tailspin.
About 1.34 million homeowners are due to come off expiring fixed-rate deals between April and December, according to the Financial Conduct Authority. Of these, up to 750,000 will be coming off super-cheap five-year fixes which they took out during the 2020 Covid era, which was set to leave them with a massive payment shock when they negotiated new deals.
However, there is now a suggestion that the Bank of England will need to cut interest rates faster than expected to stave off an economic downturn — a move which could lead lenders to cut rates.
Experts generally agree that the outlook for mortgages — while uncertain — looks slightly improved in light of this, at least in the short term.
Webb says: “The markets have concluded that interest rates will fall a bit faster than they previously thought. At face value, that implies the two-year mortgage rate will fall from 4.5 per cent in March to about 4.25 per cent.”
Chris Sykes, a broker at Private Finance, also sees reason for optimism on rates, even though the situation is “rather confused and up in the air”.
He adds: “Interest rate futures currently price in about an 85 basis point reduction this year according to Reuters, with Trump’s tariffs being the leading cause for changes in this over the past week.”
Although rates may get lower faster, this doesn’t necessarily mean everyone will be able to afford the cheaper rates.
While some lenders could follow the example of Santander in relaxing stress-testing, others are likely to be more cautious, given the uncertainty which affects their balance sheets. Martin Stewart, of the broker London Money, says: “If bank shares are hit hard — and they have been — it can have an effect on their capital adequacy ratio, which in turn leaves them having to ring-fence money to improve financial stability and absorb potential losses — money that they can’t then lend to the consumer.”
There’s also a counter-argument that the tariffs are likely to stoke inflation by making prices of goods more expensive, and so the Bank of England ought not to cut rates at all. Andrew Sentance, a former Monetary Policy Committee member, takes this view. “I expect UK inflation to go above 5 per cent this autumn and stay at around this level into next year.”
Emerson agrees: “In the short term we could see interest rate cuts but in the longer term there is an inflationary risk to the market, so rates could adjust again.”
Although, he adds: “There is nothing to suggest there will be a housing crash. We might see a little negotiation over stamp duty after the deadline but the fundamentals of the housing market remain. We have a supply shortage.”
What about first-time buyers?
For first-time buyers, the chance to pick up a bargain from modestly falling prices may provide a hint of optimism — even if increased stamp duty has raised the bills of buyers in the southeast and London (from £2,752 to £9,002, on average).
In the run-up to the stamp duty deadline, first-time buyers were over-represented in the market — purchasing a record 32 per cent of all homes in the first quarter of this year, up from 30 per cent a year earlier, a record high.
Those whose Lifetime Isa accounts are invested in the stock market may have seen their portfolio shrink significantly over the past week, setting back their hopes of affording a home.
Plus, given that the so-called Bank of Mum and Dad helped first-time buyers with £9.3 billion in 2024 — assisting 54 per cent of those buying homes — there are question marks over whether those whose investments have been hit will be able to afford it this time.
Will Labour’s building plans be hit?
There are also questions over whether inflation may hit the government’s ability to build the homes it has promised. “We will need to watch the impact on building material costs around the world. Costs are already at an all-time high and we’re already about half a billion bricks short of what we need. This could affect the government’s ability to hit its building targets. If building material costs do rise further it will be challenging to be affordable housing goals,” Emerson says.