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North Kensington, Herne Hill, Mayfair, St John’s Wood and Acton have been picked out as the top places to buy in London this year.

PCL acquisition firm Black Brick – which bought almost £100mn worth of property on behalf of its clients in 2022 – has come up with the list of neighbourhoods to help buyers choose a location “with the staying power to ride out the inevitable ups and downs of the housing cycle”.

Mayfair makes the cut in PCL, having “firmly overtaken Knightsbridge as the place to be”. Low supply and strong demand means prices are “likely to withstand any economic shocks the year may bring”, said the firm, and the arrival of Crossrail has provided another big boost.

Elsewhere, buyers priced out of Notting Hill are directed to nearby North Ken, while Herne Hill is the top pick for the “dogs and sprogs” crowd south of the river, on account of its fine housing stock and plentiful green space.

Here’s the team explaining the rationale behind the selections…

Prime Central London: Mayfair

This roughly one mile square grid of streets and squares has been a prime London address ever since the late 17th century and clever curation of its public spaces and shopping streets means that when it comes to PCL Mayfair has firmly overtaken Knightsbridge as the place to be.

Stock is in short supply, and demand remains strong from both domestic and international buyers. Add to that the fact that few Mayfair vendors will be in a position of having to sell, means prices are likely to withstand any economic shocks the year may bring.

“Mayfair is one of those places where buyers are willing to pay a premium to live,” said Camilla Dell, managing partner of Black Brick. “They don’t expect to get big discounts.”

Homes range from elegant townhouses to modern, ultra-luxury apartment buildings like Clarges Mayfair, Burlington Gate, and 1, Grosvenor Square.  The average sale price stands at £4.3m according to data from Rightmove.

“One of the key things about Mayfair is the huge amount of investment that has been put into the area by the Grosvenor Estate – they are very particular about things like which shops go into Mount Street and – and there has also been a real explosion of exclusive new private members clubs and restaurants,” said Dell.

The delayed opening of the new Crossrail line at Bond Street in October has given Mayfair an extra fillip.

“It will really appeal to buyers who come in and out of Heathrow,” said Black Brick property consultant Tom Kain.

Prime London Fringes: North Kensington

Samantha and David Cameron were early adopters of the W10 postcode, only leaving their family home to move into Downing Street in 2010.

Since then, North Ken has been on a quiet ascent.

Golborne Road Market is a more peaceful, less tourist flooded, and altogether hipper alternative to Portobello Road, with pretty stalls and food trucks, artisanal cafes, restaurants, vintage shops, and boutiques.

This fact has not gone unnoticed by young British, European, and American buyers looking for a buzzy new neighbourhood to call home. And they are also cottoning on to the fact that they can get great value for money compared to Notting Hill, less than a mile away.

“In W10, a really smart property would sell for around £1,400 to £1,500 per sq ft,” said Kain.

“A similar property in Notting Hill could cost anywhere from £4,000 to £5,000 per sq ft”.

Up and Coming London Village: Herne Hill

In the 1780s streets of fine houses were built in Herne Hill by wealthy merchants and bankers, earning it the nickname the “Belgravia of south London”.

In more recent years it Herne Hill was overshadowed by the hipsterfication of its nearest neighbours, Brixton and Peckham. But as property prices there have swelled so buyers looking for value for money have started to explore Herne Hill.

What they have found is good quality period houses, plentiful green space, and an increasingly impressive range of gastropubs and restaurants. Little wonder that a ripple of young families – the “dogs and sprogs” crowd – looking for space and quality of life have adopted Herne Hill.

The most famous of these are, of course, Boris and Carrie Johnson, who are reported to have chosen a Edwardian villa on Stradella Road as their post-Westminster home.

The average sale price of apartments in Herne Hill last year was just under £500,000 according to Rightmove, with semi detached houses selling at close to £1.5m. Prices are now 10 per cent up on pre pandemic levels.

Prime Outer London: St John’s Wood

The jewel in the crown of north London, St John’s Wood with its affluent high street, amazing schools, and beautiful white stucco villas has long been a popular roost for families who tend to stay put for decades.

“St John’s Wood has done really exceptionally well over the last 18 to 24 months,” said Dell.

The current average price for a flat in NW8 stands at just under £1.2m according to Rightmove, while semi detached houses fetch an average of just over £4.2m. And current sale prices are up 11 per cent compared to the 2018 peak.

Beyond average prices, there have been some really super prime deals struck over the past couple of years. Three houses on the area’s premier street, Hamilton Terrace sold for north of £20m, while unmodernised properties on the almost equally sought after Avenue Road are now trading for an exceptional £3,000 per sq ft.

“I think we will definitely see prices plateau this year, but this is the sort of area where people don’t need to sell if they don’t get the right price, so I don’t think we will see a drop off either,” said Dell.

Historically one thing that SJW has lacked is prime apartment buildings to tempt local homeowners to downsize. Most local stock consists of dated mansion blocks.

There is clearly latent demand: homes at One St John’s Wood, a 12 storey building opposite Lord’s Cricket Ground, which completed in 2022, sold strongly at prices starting from £2.6m.

And in November preparatory work finally started on the redevelopment of the St John’s Wood Barracks, which has been in the works for more than a decade. This 2.2-hectare site, formerly the headquarters for the Royal Horse Artillery, will bring 179 brand new homes to the market.

Crossrail Outperformer: Acton

Ever since it was announced that London was to get a new train line, smart buyers have been eyeing this Victorian suburb as a natural step out from Notting Hill or Holland Park.

And now that it is up and running its super-fast train links to the City and Canary Wharf are starting to tempt buyers who might once have preferred to live in Islington or Clerkenwell.

When the line is fully operational journeys to the City will take just over a quarter of an hour, and travellers can be in the West End in ten minutes.

These new arrivals have helped hike house prices in Acton by 59 per cent between 2012, when work on Crossrail began, and last year. And they have also contributed to a groundswell of organic local regeneration which is in the throes of transforming Acton from rather bland backwater into the new East Dulwich.

Its de-facto high street, Churchfield Road, has become a hotspot for interesting independent shops and restaurants, galleries and gastropubs, many founded by new locals.

Acton has already had its fair share of investment – the £800m regeneration of the South Acton Estate to name but one – and more is to come. Transport for London is poised to start work on a £1bn scheme to build 850 new homes, plus offices, shops, and restaurants, close to the station which will give the gateway to Acton just the face lift it needs.

One major London estate agency has seen 20% of its sales pipeline fall through as a result of buyers trying to renegotiate prices, reports acquisition firm Black Brick.

The practice of gazundering reared its head in the wake of the ill-fated mini-budget, but it doesn’t sound like vendors have been buying it.

“Some buyers treated the Truss imbroglio not as a problem but as an opportunity”, according to PCL acquisition firm Black Brick, as punchy purchasers lowered their offers at the last minute to push sellers into offering a deal.

Buyers’ attempts to renegotiate at the last minute are not working in PCL, says Camilla Dell

“I spoke to a large central London agency – they have seen 20% of their pipeline fall through where buyers have tried to renegotiate prices,” said managing partner Camilla Dell.

“What has happened is that not only have the vendors said no, but they have also decided not to sell their property to that buyer so it is not a strategy which is working”.

Opportunities to buy at distressed levels “will be few and far between,” she added, suggesting a “more constructive” way to approach the delicate negotiation process is to understand both what a fair market price is for a particular property and the needs of its vendor.

Despite the somewhat gloomy market conditions, if sellers do not have a mortgage or are simply testing the market, buyers are warned that a below-market offer is “highly unlikely to be positively received”.

Inevitably there will always be those keen to chance their arm and this, said Dell, means that while central London prices should remain fairly stable over the next few years, transaction numbers “may well tail off”.

Some investors and buyers ‘have a fixation on discounts and bargains’

Those holding out for GFC-level price falls are likely to be disappointed, she added: “Some investors, and buyers in general are really hoping that prices will come down 20%, like they did in the financial crisis…they have this fixation on discounts and bargains.

“But in Prime Central London only one in three people have taken debt to buy their properties.

“Frankly, they don’t need to sell, and if prices do come down they won’t.

“I know that is going to be very, very disappointing to some people, but buyers should be focussing on whether a property is the right home for them and their family, somewhere they are going to be able to live for ten years.”

Both Savills and Knight Frank expect PCL to outperform the rest of the country in the years ahead – with the least dramatic price correction in 2023 and the highest cumulative price growth to 2027.

By Prime Resi Journal.

Top-end London property brokers are enjoying a bonanza of urgent interest from wealthy international buyers with US dollars to spend, looking to take advantage of a significant currency discount.

The value of a British pound plunged following Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting fiesta last week, sinking to its lowest-ever level against the US dollar on Monday morning.

Economists, business leaders and politicians (except the Chancellor) have been wringing hands all day, while currency traders and pundits have made hay – as have Americans looking to buy property in the UK.

“We recently had a dollar-based buyer who reluctantly dismissed a period Mayfair townhouse because it was out of their budget,” says Mayfair estate agency boss Peter Wetherell; “with the strength of the dollar they have rekindled their interest as now affordable.”

Arthur Lintell, a Partner in Knight Frank’s Notting Hill office, has a similar tale, of an ex-Notting Hill local who relocated to New York 15 years ago – who is now returning “as the opportunity is too good not to miss as their children start Notting Hill Prep next year. In their words, ‘the timing could not be better for us right now’,” explains Lintell. “These buyers are also keen to have the competitive edge over domestic buyers who since the pandemic have dominated the family house market here in Notting Hill.”

It’s not just Americans spending dollars. Buying agency Black Brick has seen a particular spike in enquiries from Middle Eastern buyers with US currency to splash. The majority of these “are seeking homes in Prime Central London with budgets which range from £5mn to £20mn,” says founder Camilla Dell – noting that “these buyers will be purchasing at 27% discount compared to the same period last year, a significant saving to say the least.”

It’s a “fantastic opportunity” for international buyers, agrees Stuart Bennett, the recently-appointed Head of Sales at Beauchamp Estates in Mayfair.

The super-prime estate agency has seen a 40% rise in applicants purchasing in dollars as well as “a series of dollar-based deals,” most recently in Eaton Square and Cadogan Gardens. “This jump in activity reflects the fact that the current exchange rate position offers dollar purchasers probably the best opportunity there has been for many years and certainly one that people are currently taking advantage of given the influx of activity from that demographic over recent weeks,” explains Bennett.

London agency Robert Irving Burns reports a similar 35% jump in overseas property buyer enquiries since Friday’s fiscal event, prompted by what Managing Director Antony Antoniou calls “incredible discounts” on offer. “What we are seeing now is a boom in prime London property, while the rest of the country is gripped by a cost of living crisis,” says Antoniou. “Post the not so ‘mini budget’, the abolition of the higher rate of income tax and banker bonus caps means we have already seen a wave of interest in £2mn+ property across London. Investing in prime assets in the Capital is the equivalent of investing in gold in the current financial climate.”

Buying agency Banda says its retained clients with American money “clearly realise the opportunity that is on offer” with the falling sterling against the dollar. “We’ve had a few clients who were taking their time now acting quickly to get their purchases over the line and ensure they’re make the most of the currency fluctuation,” explains Head of Private Clients, Louisa Brodie.

“There has been a pick up from international buyers who see a buying opportunity in London, some of whom are taking advantage of both weaker pricing in PCL over the last seven years and record low sterling – a win-win for a value driven buyer,” says Rory Penn, Head of London Sales at Knight Frank, adding that airline passenger numbers are now running “only 17% below pre-pandemic figures now, with more international buyers to come.”

Beauchamp is taking advantage of the surge of new interest by launching a particularly grand Mayfair mansion to the sales market, with a clear focus on dollar-toting buyers. “Because of the current slump in the pound against the dollar, clients are deciding to list or relaunch properties onto the market to capitalise on the opportunity,” says Stuart Bennett. “This is why Culross House in Mayfair, which had been occupied by a tenant, has now been newly relaunched onto the sales market. We believe that Culross House will be ideal for an American purchaser, or an international buyer, potentially from the Middle East or Asia purchasing with US dollars, because of the current US dollar to pound sterling exchange rate situation, which effectively gives US dollar purchasers a 30% discount when buying a home in Mayfair.”

Bennett has some sums to illustrate the point: “Back in 2007 the $ hit over $2 to the £ and in 2014 it was up around $1.7 to the £; today we are sitting at around $1.16 to the £. This means that if a dollar-based buyer is purchasing a luxury property at £30mn today this currently relates to around $34.8mn, whereas in 2014 a £30mn London mansion would have cost around $51mn – so a c.30% difference. Likewise buying a London property at £5mn now is around $5.8mn, whereas in 2014 that same £5mn would have cost around $8.5mn.”

That 30% difference “pays for a buyer’s Stamp Duty and also any renovation or moving in costs,” adds Bennett. “It also enables a dollar-based buyer to buy a home in a much better area than previously or a bigger property with the much healthier budget.”

But it’s not going to be plain-sailing for overseas house-hunters in London, even if they suddenly have a lot of extra cash to splash; there’s just not that much around to buy.

“There remains a supply issue in Prime Central London which is unlikely to disappear with the current drop in the pound,” notes Camilla Dell, explaining that “many USD based sellers of PCL will have purchased when the pound was much stronger and will not want to crystalise their losses by selling.”

Peter Wetherell flags a similar issue: “Some sellers have withdrawn their properties because repatriating and converting their sterling monies does not equate,” he says. “They are therefore – once again becoming reluctant landlords and renting in a very strong market. Whichever way you look at it, there will be a lack of prime stock availability and therefore now is a buying opportunity.”

“Best in class stock is low and whilst it often achieves a premium it still offers better value than it would have done this time last year,” adds Banda’s Louisa Brodie – who thinks there’s “much more of this to come – decisive international purchasers snapping up prime properties and fast!”

“Buy now – whilst stocks last,” advises Wetherell.

Islington is “one of the toughest” locations in London to be a prime property buyer, say Coutts bank and buying agency Black Brick. The number of homes available to buy in the area has plunged by nearly a third in the last year, while demand has been rising.

29% fewer properties were listed for sale in the Islington and King’s Cross area in Q2 this year compared to last year, according to LonRes, leaving overall stock 32% lower.

At the same time, Black Brick has seen a “sharp rise” in buyer interest – particularly from wealthy tech professionals looking for period homes with easy access to the Central London.

Around half the enquiries received by buying agency this summer have been from British buyers wanting to upsize to a house in Islington, typically with a budget between £1.5mn and £3mn. “Stock is severely limited, and competition is high, meaning more and more buyers are turning to buying agents for help,” explains the team.

The average buyer in Islington negotiated a meagre 1% off their new home’s original asking price in Q2, according to LonRes. For comparison, the average discount across prime London is currently around 6%.

“The Islington property market is highly competitive,” says Tom Kain, Senior Property Consultant at Black Brick. “We have seen a great deal of pent-up demand for houses in the area. Buyers are drawn to three storey terraced period houses which have been newly refurbished. Our clients have predominantly been in the tech industry and are drawn to Islington because of its proximity to The City and the West End, and its family friendly lifestyle.”

One of the buying agency’s recent acquisitions illustrates the trend. The firm secured a six-bedroom Regency house in Highbury for £3.45mn, following “many months” of searching Islington, Canonbury and Highbury on behalf of a client with “very specific requirements”.

The 3,2000 sq ft semi-detached property (pictured below) on Hamilton Park West features a 65-foot garden and private off-street parking.

Black Brick founder Camilla Dell flags a wider movement of affluent buyers from Prime Central London towards the capital’s leafier fringes, including Highbury, Fulham, Battersea, Hackney and Shepherds Bush. “These prime outer London areas have proven highly popular as many buyers aim to get more for their money, gaining gardens or outside space and home offices, as well as a great square footage,” she explains.

Looking ahead, the BB team expects some of the heat to come out of the prime London market through the Autumn. “We expect that prices in Islington may slow in the coming months due to the area being susceptible to rising interest rates, as many buyers take debt to buy in the area,” says Kain.

Where is all the stock; what will happen to prices; and which areas are buyers flocking to right now? Seasoned buy-side pros have been giving their hot takes on the first few months of 2022, which is shaping up to be another crazy one…

We’ve heard a lot about the severe and continuing shortage of homes available to buy across the UK property market, and the situation seems even more stark at the top end.

“The finest homes are as rare as unicorns,” say Richard & Sophie Rogerson of RFR, “and invariably trade competitively and without ever coming to the open market.”

“There is a perpetual lack of supply,” adds Charlie Wells of Prime Purchase, noting that “this imbalance in the prime markets looks set to continue to support prices, while hesitant buyers risk missing out.”

Adding to the market’s hectic pace, international buyers are back on the scene in both town and country. London-based Eccord, for example, has enjoyed a 40% increase in enquiries from overseas buyers in the last month.

Some international buyers appear to be paying over the odds for English country houses, suggests Charlie Ellingworth of Property Vision, while a broader range of central London properties are in demand as city life resumes. Black Brick’s Camilla Dell has noticed “a bit of a shift from people wanting a townhouse in Belgravia or Mayfair,” towards more community-centred Chelsea.

Chelsea has got ‘much, much nicer’ over the last few years, says Black Brick, and is being favoured by many buyers over Belgravia and Mayfair

“Houses and apartments without decent outside space were almost unsaleable” in the immediate aftermath of Covid-19 lockdowns, says Edward Towers of Aykroyd & Co. Now, however, “best in class properties in general are back in demand, even where they lack outside space.” Towers believes this “is due to there being more pied-a-terre and overseas investment buyers re-entering the market, after a lull over the past year or two.”

Ellingworth adds a note of caution, echoing Knight Frank’s latest forecasts that anticipate a slowing market. “There is a queue of buyers who are burning hot – for now – but may not be next year or the year after,” he warns. “This thought is percolating through and sellers are beginning to consider that this may be the moment to get the premium that may not be there once the post-pandemic backlog has eased and the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis is known. If that is right, this year will be busy.”

Best-in-class properties are back in demand, even those without outside space

Edward Towers, Aykroyd & Co: “The overall Prime Central London market has continued in much the same vein as in the run up to Christmas.

“That is to say for best-in-class houses and apartments demand is vastly outstripping supply resulting in best bids being more common.

“As ever, the majority of properties we find for our clients never hit the open market given the intensity of buyers and lack of sellers. This is why we welcome clients engaging with us early, so we have time to fully educate them on the London property market ensuring they are poised and fully committed when we source their preferred property. This ensures they are in the best position to achieve the right outcome.

“Whereas post-pandemic, houses and apartments without decent outside space were almost unsaleable given UK ‘needs based’ buyers’ recent lockdown experiences, we are pleased to report that best-in-class properties in general are back in demand, even where they lack outside space. We believe this is due to there being more pied-a-terre and overseas investment buyers re-entering the market, after a lull over the past year or two.

“Perhaps unsurprisingly after several years out of the limelight, due to distractions such as Brexit, Corbyn and other factors such as recent stock market turmoil and world events have refocused London’s status as the premier haven for international investors, on top of an already strong domestic market.

“We have seen our busiest ever month for enquiries. We recognise and appreciate, particularly with current global affairs, that security is more important to buyers than potential interest rate rises.”

The Great Catch Up

Charlie Ellingworth, Property Vision: “Almost every seller is a buyer. This pretty well sums up the dynamic of the current market where supply, or lack of it, is the cri de coeur of every buyer. It may be great to get a record price for your house, but if you can’t find anything to replace it, even at half the price, then you tend to stay where you are.

“But if that is the case, then why are nearly all estate agents reporting a record year? They live on high turnover, not high prices, so if the desert is really so dry, they should be moaning, not rejoicing. The reason it has been a happy time for them is the Great Catch Up, that has happened after a year of lockdowns, covering all property – the good, the bad and the indifferent. It is when they sell lots of the bad and indifferent – those with a view of pylons, the smell of a nearby farmyard, the restaurant below or the noise of a motorway – that they make their money. It is in the rarified air of the good that the problem lies – as indeed it always does – where there are lots of ticks that have to match lots of boxes and where the need to compromise is somewhat alleviated by lots of money.

“It is also very concentrated. In London it is communal gardens in Holland Park/Notting Hill where there is always competition, as there is for large lateral flats with an outside space. In the country, outside the obvious commuting areas, the really hot demand is in North Oxfordshire (Jeremy Clarksonshire) and the Cotswolds, the Wiltshire chalk valleys, the West Sussex Downs and in Somerset around Bruton. In all these areas there is a limited supply and a huge demand: we estimate this (and this is finger in the air not a scientific fact) to be about three times more than in the pre- Covid era. This has obviously shown through in prices but also in the value of extra land. This is the premium paid for a house with say 200 acres of land that values the land at multiples of its agricultural price – the whole being worth way more than the sum of the parts. The valuation of this for a bank loan is clearly going to be a problem – which illustrates well that this is a market for cash buyers where personal fulfilment trumps demonstrable economic value.

“Bank valuations are an issue in such a thin and rarified market as they are, by definition, backward looking. Valuations also assume that buyers are familiar with the market and comparing what they are buying with a house nearby. For example, there were four houses in the Cotswolds that sold last year to Americans, as near as sight-unseen, for what were punchy prices. They were probably comparing the price with an equivalent house in Florida, the Côte d’Azur or Tuscany, against which they may have seemed cheap. Looking at recent local price history they appear high – but against the London equivalent they also would appear good value. Who is right on this? In a genuinely international market it’s a difficult call.

“There were plenty of people calling time on the London market last year. With working from home, who’d choose to live in the capital? It turns out that all the things that people like about cities – restaurants, theatres, clubs and galleries – have probably even more appeal after a year of abstinence. The market has been busy even without a good proportion of traditional overseas buyers, particularly those still locked down all over Asia. Even without them, there is demand for certain types of property: a large lateral flat with air conditioning is always appealing to a certain type of international buyer who would never buy anything else.

“Their value is underpinned in that they won’t be making any more of them: Westminster has introduced size restrictions for any new buildings in their area – 1,615 square feet – and Kensington and Chelsea have said that they will follow suit. This is the size of a generous two- bedroom flat and a lot smaller than any family house. This constriction of supply won’t have a major influence on prices until all the schemes that are currently under construction are completed and sold – but this is a major sea-change in a city that has been, for the last thirty years, pretty laissez faire about letting the market do what it does.

“It would be a mistake to assume that the whole property market is a seller’s market. There are plenty of places where the buyer is in the driving seat – often dictated by fashion. A good house in Leicestershire or Rutland will cost you half the equivalent in Gloucestershire or Hampshire despite better rail connections and not dissimilar countryside. Mobile phone and internet black spots will stymie even the loveliest of positions. If you are looking for a tall thin house in London with no garden, the price you pay per square foot will be about half the communal garden equivalent. There are plenty of dark flats, in clapped out buildings, on busy roads that are barely worth more now than they were in 2014 – the high-water mark for the London market before the Osborne stamp duty axe was wielded.

“Going back to the lack of supply, what unlocks the top end of the market if sellers can’t buy what they want? There is, we sense, a slight change in sellers’ perceptions. Against a darkening economic background of already high inflation and almost certain rising interest rates, there is a queue of buyers who are burning hot – for now – but may not be next year or the year after. This thought is percolating through and sellers are beginning to consider that this may be the moment to get the premium that may not be there once the post-pandemic backlog has eased and the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis is known. If that is right, this year will be busy.”

Short supply for high-end buyers

Jo Eccles, Eccord: “The market remains extremely challenging for buyers seeking large family homes in prime central London locations such as Chelsea, Notting Hill and St Johns Wood, particularly in the £5m – £15m price bracket.

“Approximately 80% of our clients are domestic needs-driven buyers, but we are also seeing the return of discretionary and international buyers. In the last month we have had a 40% increase in enquiries from international buyers, mainly from the US and Europe, as well as a number of expats relocating back from Singapore and Hong Kong.

“Outside space is less important to them but a porter or concierge is. In the £5m – £10m price range, buyers are cost conscious and sensitive to service charge levels, whereas our £10m+ buyers are keen to have hotel grade amenities and are willing to pay for them.”

US and Canadian buyers leading the international charge

Richard & Sophie Rogerson, RFR: “Whilst Omicron delayed the start of 2022 and global equity markets reacted to any manner of shocks, demand for prime properties in London seems so far unabated. According to Knight Frank, demand remains 70% above the five-year average. We have certainly seen our busiest Q1 for some time and that follows two extraordinary years of demand for our services.

“Demand represents a mix of domestic and international buyers, with the former now driven as much by the global M&A boom as pandemic proofing, whilst US and Canadian buyers are returning in force and leading the international charge. We are of course sector agnostic, but London is, anecdotally, seeing a surge in tech and life science entrepreneurs. Whilst the financial City remains subdued and adjusts to changing commuter patterns, London itself has seen a resurgence since lockdown measures were lifted.

“…In contrast, stock levels remain exceptionally low, especially for best-in-class properties and for well executed ‘turnkey’ properties. The finest homes are as rare as unicorns and invariably trade competitively and without ever coming to the open market. With a recent Savills survey showing that 90+% of buyers see the lack of stock as their biggest issue, it is no surprise that our ability to gain preferential access to these discreet properties has become the focus for new clients when we meet. As ever, there is no shortcut to opening these elusive doors; it is about the strength of relationships, credibility and tenacity.”

Lack of supply looks set to support prices

Charlie Wells, Prime Purchase: “The prime housing market has felt robust but cautious this year, for obvious reasons. Clients are mindful of rising inflation and living costs, which are having a negative impact on us all. That said, life is too short to stand still and do nothing, so with some appropriate adjustments to aspirations and spending power, the market continues to move on with surprising gusto.

“Good houses, both in London and the country, seem to be receiving as much interest as ever with large numbers of viewings, competitive bids and premium prices being paid. There is a perpetual lack of supply; this imbalance in the prime markets looks set to continue to support prices, while hesitant buyers risk missing out.”

Chelsea in bloom, as Mayfair & Belgravia wilt

Camilla Dell, Black Brick: “St John’s Wood has been red hot for the last couple of years, and there is a real lack of supply of family houses.

“When a good house does come up it sells immediately, and records are being set. I would say that prices have gone up by at least ten per cent in the last 12 months.

“Chelsea is an area we now get asked to search in more than we did pre-pandemic.

“There has been a bit of a shift from people wanting a townhouse in Belgravia or Mayfair. Both suffer a bit from a reputation that a lot of owners are from overseas and nobody actually lives there. Chelsea is a much more residential area, and one which has got much, much nicer over the last few years, with immediate access to lovely coffee shops and restaurants.

“The pandemic has definitely made people value having a great quality high street close to their front door.

“We have also seen an uptick in interest in east London postcodes, particularly from entrepreneurs and tech types. There is definitely strong activity, which will be being driven by the return to normality and people going back to their offices.

“Plus, it is so much more affordable than Prime Central London for younger buyers.

“Some buyers are bound to be people who moved out of London and are now realising that they need to be back in their offices at least a few days a week. There are a lot of businesses which will not accept people working from home from the shires full time.

“I am sure that there are also a lot of returning renters thinking the same thing, which is why we are also seeing rents increase.”

Even those with healthy budgets of between £4m and £10m are coming unstuck in hotspots like St John’s Wood & Putney, according to Black Brick

A buying agency has claimed that finding a decent house in one of the capital’s hottest markets is now “impossible” without professional help.

A number of firms have flagged up how stiff the competition has become for properties (specifically houses, rather than flats) in areas like St John’s Wood lately. Competitive bidding and record prices continue to be fuelled by a shortage of stock and strong demand for large family homes in the leafiest enclaves.

Camilla Dell, managing partner of Mayfair-based Black Brick has gone further, declaring: “I would go as far as to say that it is impossible to buy in one of these very busy markets without a buying agent.”

House prices in NW8 have risen by over 10% in the past 12 months alone, according to Dell, who notes that even unmod examples on good streets have breached the £3,000 per sq ft mark – and are currently changing hands for £3,200 to £3,300 per sq ft.

“A lot of the clients we are taking on at the moment are people looking in the £4m to £10m bracket and they just can’t find anything to buy or they find something and then get gazumped,” she added.

SW15 is another hotspot, said partner Caspar Harvard-Walls: “We showed a house in Putney to a client on a Friday, the day it went onto the market…They didn’t want it, but within two days the vendor had an asking price offer and one of over asking price. It was gone in two days.”

The firm doesn’t see the imbalance between supply and demand resolving any time soon and advises those looking in one of these sought-after areas to “prepare themselves for a real bun fight”.

This super-prime family house in St John’s Wood was acquired for a Black Brick client recently, following six months of ‘persistence and patience’.

Other buying agencies have reported a “wave of demand” for their services over the last two years, with many unable to meet the level of enquiries coming in. Jonathan Hopper of Garringtons, one of the largest operators, said the pandemic had “transformed the way buying agents are seen” while Jonathan Harington of long-established firm Haringtons said representation had “become the norm for savvy buyers”.

Black Brick has signed up eight new clients in the last fortnight – all but one of whom are looking for apartments in London’s top postcodes: ‘It was tumbleweed for 18 months but now it is a frenzy’.

Prime Central London flats are back on the wishlist for high-end buyers, according to a Mayfair-based agency.

Black Brick’s buying team has reported signing up eight new clients in the last fortnight alone, with a combined spending power of £17m. Interestingly, 100% of them want PCL addresses, and all but one are after an apartment.

Homes sold in London this summer were 20% bigger than the 2016 to 2019 average, according to LonRes, but the renewed appetite for flats suggests this particular pandemic-driven market trend “could be slowing down”, said the firm.

“It has been an extraordinary start to autumn,” confirmed managing partner Camilla Dell. “Demand for Prime Central London flats is back. It was tumbleweed for 18 months but now it is a frenzy.

“It started in August when we suddenly had a lot of Middle Eastern clients coming over…Then, literally as soon as the schools went back we started to get really busy with lots of new clients.”

The new crop of prospective buyers have mostly come from North America, West Africa, and the Middle East.

The return of overseas buyers is good news for PCL developers and vendors, added the firm, but the heightened interest isn’t yet reflected in house price data. According to the latest official UK HPI, prices in Westminster are down 3% year on year (to an average £898k) while in Kensington and Chelsea they have inched up by 0.7% to just over £1.3m.

Dell: “If you walk around London it really feels like the buzz is back. People are back in their offices, and just walking around town it feels almost like the pandemic never happened. In terms of prices, the needle is probably already moving, and we could see growth in Prime Central London of 2 to 3% by the end of the year if it carries on at the current rate.”