How will the general election affect house prices?

With the next UK general election coming up soon, we’ve shared our insights into how the housing and property market make be impacted in The Times this week.

Reacting to the possibility of Labour’s pledge to scrap non-domiciled tax status taking place, Black Brick buying agency Founder Camilla Dell said:

“If members of this small but economically significant group decided to vote with their feet and exit the UK, it could have a disproportionate impact on the very top end of the housing market,”.

Read the full article here.

Nine of the best luxury apartment sales of 2023 so far

Apartment living is still hugely popular amongst prime central London property buyers, with 90% of Black Brick’s deals this year so far involving flats, up from 43% last year.

“Buyers are clearly bored of being out in the sticks, and are looking for the excitement of city centre living once again, particularly if they need to show their faces at the office,”, our Founder shared with PrimeResi, in their latest article highlighting the very best luxury penthouse sales of the year so far.

Read the full article here.

How security concerns are impacting London’s super-prime property market

Recent, somewhat scaremongering reports into London’s safety have made prime property buyers (and owners) all the more cautious.

In a new piece that delves into the issue, PrimeResi spoke with Black Brick buying agency Founder, Camilla Dell to hear her thoughts, alongside a host of fellow other buying agents and experts.

“There’s been a lot of talk amongst certain HNW’s about London’s increase in crime and how terrible things are and they are leaving. Donald Trump’s feuding with London Mayor Sadiq Khan also contributed to this rhetoric. As a Londoner, having lived and worked in London my whole life, my own personal experience is that I haven’t noticed an increase in crime. I continue to wear my wedding ring, eternity ring and new apple iWatch and I have never once felt threatened or at risk walking the streets of London.

As a buying agent, I walk the streets a lot. I’m not trying to take away from other people’s negative experiences, but I do think a few high profile people have jumped up and down about crime in London but they aren’t leaving London for the crime. They are leaving because they prefer to live in countries such as Dubai with lower tax rates, or for other business reasons. London’s crime index is 53.8 with a safety index of 46.2 meaning we have a relatively moderate crime level compared to other major cities around the world.

For clients where security is important, we work with a few trusted security firms, many are ex-police officers who advise our clients on how to make their homes more secure. Security isn’t just about preventing burglaries and intruders but also cyber criminals – something which is often overlooked.”

Flats now ‘firmly rehabilitated’ in prime central London

90% of our deals so far this year here at Black Brick buying agents involved apartments in H1; compared to 43% last year.

Sharing the news in PrimeResi this week, we reflected on this new trend in the property market, citing “buyers are clearly bored of being out in the sticks, and are looking for the excitement of city centre living once again, particularly if they need to show their faces at the office”.

The property hotspots immune to the house price downturn

Particular towns and regions in Britain are starting to see pre-pandemic transaction levels, Ruth Bloomfield writes in The Telegraph this week.

Sharing his insights into why this may be happening, Black Brick partner and experienced property expert Caspar Harvard-Walls shared:

“In early 2019 we had Theresa May as prime minister, we were going through the agony of Brexit, and there was the worry of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. Confidence was very, very low, and transactions were low. Comparing now to then is a comparison to a real low point.”

“Overseas buyers have certainly been returning to London. They are not worried about interest rates, it is all about confidence, and they are also benefiting from the weak pound. A lot of domestic buyers in these areas work in the financial markets and have done really well in the last couple of years so they also have money to spend.”

Read the full article here.

‘Sticky’ prime central London set for deal drought

We’re sharing our insights into the prime cental London property market this week in PrimeResi, warning that it will take a while before vendors accept that buyers are much more price-sensitive at the moment.

“I have found that there tends to be a long delay, in a market which is slowing, for that message to sink in for sellers that they need to be realistic about prices,” our managing partner Camilla Dell, commented. “We are just starting to see prices coming down a bit – even where we have been previously told that a seller is in no hurry – and some sellers are becoming more amenable to negotiation.”

Read the full article here.

It will take time for vendors to accept the fact that buyers are far more price sensitive these days, says Black Brick.

Transactions are likely to remain low in Prime London during the months ahead, as buyer and seller expectations remain out of alignment.

This is the prognosis from PCL buying agency Black Brick, which has reported a “very sticky” start to the summer, with buyers “far more price sensitive” than they were at the peak of the pandemic.

The firm suggests it will take time for vendors to accept this fact, and start pricing homes at the lower end of the PCL scale at a level to tempt interest. Until then, unfortunately, much of the market looks set for deadlock…

“I have found that there tends to be a long delay, in a market which is slowing, for that message to sink in for sellers that they need to be realistic about prices,” said managing partner Camilla Dell. “We are just starting to see prices coming down a bit – even where we have been previously told that a seller is in no hurry – and some sellers are becoming more amenable to negotiation.”

While there’s no sign of the double-digit price falls that were being predicted at the start of the year, the team is seeing a “very selective market” which has more in common with pre-pandemic times than with the rollercoaster journey since 2020.

“Buyers are still out there”, said the firm in the update to clients, “particularly cash buyers operating at the top end of the market, but despite healthy budgets they are not willing to pay over the odds for properties. They are also taking the time to be very choosy when it comes to location and specification. As a result, while prices are holding firm, the number of deals being made is the indicator which has taken a hit.”

“Those 2023 forecasts were always ridiculous,” added Caspar Harvard-Walls, a partner at the firm. “The problem was that they did affect buyer confidence and sentiment”.

He suggests the market is now undergoing “normalisation”, with interest rates no longer at a record low, and the race for space far less of a driving force: “We were just spoiled during the Covid-19 market…It was a false reality, a completely unusual set of circumstances. Now buyers are saying hold on, that property is the wrong price, and that is how it should be.”

The latest LonRes data showed PCL sales activity in April was 34.7% lower than in 2022, with the year-to-date total down more than 24%. The number of properties under offer was down 11% year-on-year.

The high-end sector of the market has outperformed, however – agreed sales above £5mn were up 26% on last year and are more than 50% above the average levels seen between 2017 and 2019.

Dell says the reason for the “two-tier” market is simple: “The people who are buying at the moment are wealthier clients who are less reliant on mortgage finance. They include overseas buyers who are still buying in London because of the weak pound, and they tend to have bigger budgets.”

The estate agency Strutt & Parker decided to retain its 2023 sales market forecasts last week, citing “renewed confidence” and “signs of recovery and stability” in around South East, East of England and Prime Central London as cause for a relatively bullish outlook.

At the national level, Strutts expects the average UK house price to drop by up to 5% through this year (something between a -5% and a 0% annual change), while Prime Central London could see prices either rise or fall by 3% (a -3% to +3% forecast range for the current year).

Prices in Prime London and around the UK are still on track to rise by between 10% and 15% over the next five years, according to the firm’s analysts.

Why wealthy Turks are buying up pricey postcodes in London

Financial instability in Turkey seems to be drawing residents to buy up property in prime central London, in an effort to secure the safety of both their families, and money.

Camilla Dell, founder of buying agency Black Brick, shared in The Times that the currency crash means some Turks can only afford to rent in London at the moment, but the wealthier ones are keen to get their money out of the country.

“Many Turks fear the longer Erdogan remains in power, the worse the country’s economy will become. They have lost all hope that he can turn it around. His handling of the earthquake disaster [in February] has only cemented this thought in the mind of many Turks, both locally and Turkish expats,” she said.

Read the full article here.

Eight questions an estate agent doesn’t want you to ask — but you absolutely should

Black Brick Managing Partner and experienced property buying agent, Camilla Dell has shared her insights and advice to buyers in The Standard this week.

“Information is critical to be able assess price, ability to negotiate, timescales and whether there are any potential hidden reasons why you may not want —or be able — to buy that property,” she said. “It’s a very British thing to not ask and be polite, but buying a property is one of the most expensive things a person buys in their lifetime.”

Read the full article to learn more here.

What would a Labour government mean for the prime property market?

This week, our Founder and Managing Partner, Camilla Dell joined a host of fellow industry experts discussing the future of the UK’s prime property market in PrimeResi.

“A Labour win isn’t going to have a positive impact on the super prime London property market. Labour want to increase tax on overseas buyers which is already at 15%, an extortionate amount.”, Camilla shared. “Most overseas buyers aren’t even competing with first time buyers as they are buying well above £1 million. What the London property market needs is more affordable stock, not higher taxes. Higher stamp duty will cause the market to stall meaning fewer transactions, but not necessarily huge price falls.”

“The last time stamp duty went up the London market fell pretty much in line with the increase. How much the market falls this time all depends on what the extra increase looks like.”, she continued. “A 60% tax, such as what the Singapore government have brought in for overseas buyers, would be disastrous and would erode confidence in the market in London. Right now, most overseas buyers are unaware of the changes a Labour government would implement if elected but I imagine that will start to change as we get closer the GE”

Read the full article here.

The home improvements that could take thousands off your property price

Speaking with David Byers in The Times this week, Black Brick’s Founder and Managing Partner, Camilla Dell shares her top tips for what to do (and what NOT to do) to get the best price for your property.

“Basements by their nature are dark and have no windows, so you have to consider how that space will be used. For example, bedrooms cannot be designated or sold as a bedroom unless it has a window,” Camilla commented.

“Some of the worst basements I’ve seen are multilevel ones. Space is often created for beauty salons, massage rooms, gyms — but the reality is these spaces are rarely used. Buyers do not place as much value in terms of price per square foot on basement space as they do on floors that are above ground. The differential can be as much as 50 per cent in the worst cases,” she said.

Read the full article here.