‘We have been amazed by how much prime stock there is to choose from at the moment,’ says PCL acquisition firm, which has just secured an apartment in Kensington for less than half its original £30mn asking.
Property market predictions are proving unusually difficult this year, but a top acquisition firm has backed Savills’ view that PCL prices are likely to slide over the coming 12 months.
High-end stock continues to pile up across the prime postcodes, and Black Brick says buyers remain “extremely price sensitive”. Some eye-popping discounts are being secured as a result.
The firm is currently acting for an overseas buyer who is in the process of snapping up a six-bed flat in Kensington which originally went on sale for an “ambitious” £30mn. With no takers the owner gradually dropped the price down to a more reasonable £18m. An offer has just been accepted at £14.55mn, or £2,500 per square foot, less than half the original price. The team describes this as “outstanding value considering the property’s quality and location”.
“We have seen opportunistic overseas buyers come to the market who are looking for a deal, because they are obviously out there at the moment,” explained managing partner Camilla Dell.
“London will come back and now is a great time to buy prime assets. We have been amazed by how much prime stock there is to choose from at the moment, and there are quite a few people who need to sell to the extent that they are willing to sell at a loss. Others have owned their properties a long time and so they are willing to be pragmatic about price.”
Tom Kain, partner, said many of the vendors coming to the market have been waiting “literally years” for a good time to sell – from Brexit to the pandemic, through the outbreak of war in Europe and the Middle East, the cost of living crisis, and the 2024 General Election: “They have got to the point now where they can’t just sit it out any longer”.
Dell predicts house hunters will have a “solid window of opportunity” before prices start to increase in 2026: “This is the moment when the really smart money is buying”.
“I have never seen such a huge variation between the main forecasts,” she added. “Usually, the main estate agency forecasts are less than a point apart, but this time the differences are huge. My reading is that none of the agents really know where the market is headed next year and beyond.”
The firm suspects that Savills’ more conservative view of the potential for price growth will be closest to the mark: “Sellers are having to be very realistic and willing to sell at really big discounts in order to achieve a sale in the current market,” said Dell, but caveats that the reality is likely to be “far more complicated and nuanced” with certain property types in certain locations selling strongly and others continuing to dive: “Forecasts are not gospel, and London is a very complex market. There will be different outcomes in different parts of the capital. We continue to see a lack of supply for best-in-class family homes with gardens and parking in the most desirable streets of prime London, around Notting Hill for example, where bargain hunters may be disappointed.”
Other key trends flagged for 2025 include: heightened competition for big-ticket rental homes, as international HNWIs navigate the new non-dom rules; and further growth in off-market selling – it’s estimated that 50-60% of PCL properties are now discreetly marketed without ever hitting the portals. “I am on perhaps 50 WhatsApp chats to keep up with off market sales,” added Dell.
