The playing field has changed substantially’ for property buyers, says one of London’s top buying agents, as she explores why Trump’s tariff-induced international economic turbulence feels different to previous financial crises.
Global financial markets have been on a wild ride in recent weeks, reacting to rapid changes to international trade dynamics as President Trump toys with the America’s tariff regime.
Prime London property is often touted as a “safe haven” in times of economic volatility, but are things different this time around?
Top-flight buying agent Camilla Dell, founder of Black Brick, has been musing on how the current turbulence compares with previous bouts of economic mania – such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
“In 2008–2009, we saw a clear flight to safety,” says Dell. “At the height of the global banking meltdown, with names like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and AIG dominating headlines. Many of our clients turned to London property as a tangible, stable alternative to volatile stocks and bonds. Activity surged, driven both by opportunists and those seeking the security of bricks and mortar.”
This is not the case today, suggests Dell. “We don’t anticipate a sudden rush of overseas buyers flooding the market, despite the current financial volatility,” she says – although her buying agency is seeing “notable momentum from UK domestic buyers those upsizing, downsizing, or purchasing second homes.”
There are several reasons for the altered market landscape. Notably, prime property prices have largely stagnated over a ten-year timeframe. Prices have retreated back to where they were during the last financial crisis, quelled by changes in non-dom taxation and increased stamp duty – which means some PCL homes are now looking like relatively good value.
“For buyers who’ve been waiting patiently on the sidelines,” Dell believes “the tide has turned in their favour.”
Another “stark contrast” to the 2008 era is that foreign buyers can no longer purchase through offshore corporate structures to avoid inheritance or capital gains tax. “The playing field has changed substantially, limiting some of the fiscal benefits that once drew international capital to London,” notes Dell.
2008 Vs 2025: 3 key differences for the UK property market (according to Black Brick)
- Stamp Duty Dynamics: During the 2008 crisis, the highest stamp duty rate was just 4%, and the government raised the 0% threshold to stimulate transactions. Today, overseas buyers of additional properties may face rates as high as 19%.
- Interest Rate Environment: Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Bank of England rapidly reduced base rates from 4.5% to 2% within months. Today, despite speculation of future cuts, the base rate sits at 4.5%, and dramatic reductions appear unlikely.
- Change in Tax Incentives: The removal of historic tax advantages for buy-to-let investors has largely reduced the appeal of property as a yield-focused investment.
Camilla Dell: “People are understandably nervous right now. In times of financial fear, many pause, especially those who have suffered losses in the markets. But for the brave, there are real opportunities. One of our overseas clients, currently transacting, put it perfectly: ‘Buying a place in this turmoil seems crazy, but that’s why I think offering something like this makes sense. No one is transacting on anything anywhere.’
“As the global financial picture continues to evolve, the message is clear: London may be down—but for the right buyers, it’s far from out.”
