6th March 2025
9mins
There are definite signs of life in Prime Central London, according to data from property analyst LonRes. Instructions keep on rising, up 22 per cent year on year, giving prospective buyers greater choice.
Both average sale prices and transaction levels are holding firm, and the number of homes going under offer is up by 19 per cent on an annual basis, suggesting that those transaction levels are due to see a rise in the coming months.
On the flip side, the proportion of homes having prices cut back is up – two in five homes have a price reduction prior to sale, and the average discount stands at almost ten per cent.
And the top end of the market is particularly subdued with the number of £5m+ transactions down 68 per cent on January 2024.
Camilla Dell, managing partner of Black Brick, believes that this motley scenario is down to one single factor: extreme buyer caution.
“It is definitely a buyers’ market, and they are being very cautious,” she said. “In a market where people are fighting over properties, buyers are more willing to take a view. At the moment they want to be very, very certain – the amount of due diligence being done is extreme, and if anything comes up in a survey they want to renegotiate.
“We have actually got more buyers over £20m looking for properties with us than ever before. They can see that it is a time of opportunity, but they want the extra security of advice from a buying agent before making a decision.”
An excess of caution is not only a London phenomenon. Buyers across the UK have started the year in circumspect mood according to research from estate agent Knight Frank – the number of new prospective buyers registering in the UK in January was 12 per cent below the five-year average.
However, it seems that buyers who aspire to a home with a SW postcode are made of sterner stuff – particularly domestic buyers looking to spend between £1m and £4m.
The number of new applicants at the start of 2025 was 29 per cent higher than the five-year average – a strong beginning by any standards, especially compared to Prime Central where Knight Frank reports a five per cent drop off in applicant numbers.
Black Brick is also seeing strong competition for family homes in neighbourhoods like Parson’s Green, Chiswick, and the perennially popular streets between Clapham and Wandsworth commons.
“The attraction is very much south west London’s little villages, with good high streets, greenery and good schools,” said Dom Heath, a senior buying consultant at Black Brick.
“Now people have stopped flooding out to the country, it feels like the next best thing, and we find that once people have moved into these areas, they never want to leave.”
Black Brick recently helped clients buy a three bedroom house in Parsons Green, mapping the area street by street to find the best locations and helped them buy a three bedroom house for £1.63m, or £882 per sq ft. The house on Epple Road did need work, but it was well below their budget ceiling and Black Brick introduced them to a team of contractors to help cost and carry out the work.
At the start of next month, the Government’s new Stamp Duty thresholds come into force, the latest in a decade-long exercise in tinkering with the buying tax to manipulate the housing market. Second home owners and buyers of expensive properties have been right in the firing line.
Back in 2012, buyers spending more than £2m on a UK property paid seven per cent tax. Today they can pay up to 19 per cent.
This time around, it is first time buyers who will pay.
On 1 April, Stamp Duty thresholds will revert to pre-Covid levels, meaning London first-time buyers will pay up to an extra £6,250. While this is clearly not a Prime Central London issue, it is another hit to a healthy, functioning housing market in the capital.
“Ever since George Osborne started tinkering around with Stamp Duty rates, it has been like glue being poured into the market,” said Dell. “Whilst the Treasury is still getting its tax revenue, we don’t have a healthy, functioning market in terms of volume. I know it won’t happen, but I’d very much like to go back to how we were before all these changes began.”
The transformation of London’s oldest department store into its newest ultra-luxury apartment building is complete. The results of the £1.2bn rebirth of The Whiteley, compete with 139 homes, a Six Senses Hotel, and a range of shops and restaurants, were unveiled, formally, at the end of February although many of its properties – including a £40m penthouse – have been on the market since last year.
The Whiteley is an interesting proposition. Its apartments are certainly prime, but its Bayswater address not so much. Historically, this neighbourhood north of Hyde Park has been down at heel and far less sought after than the likes of Knightsbridge or Notting Hill, partly because of its proximity to Paddington Station – major transport interchanges tend to bring with them antisocial elements, noise, dirt, and lots of transient visitors.
Dell believes that buyers considering making a foray into what Bloomberg recently described as the “final frontier” of Prime Central London, need to have a strategy. Although The Whiteley’s prices are much the same as you’d pay in Mayfair or Marylebone, average prices in Bayswater can be significantly lower than neighbouring areas.
Buying at a good price is essential, and there certainly doesn’t seem to be much competition around. Recent research by Investec Bank found that it took an average 191 days to sell a home in Bayswater, making it the slowest moving market in central London – compared to just 79 days in Hampstead.
Bayswater purchases also need to be long term. “Yes, things are improving in Bayswater, but it is going to take a long time to regenerate,” said Dell. “At the moment, there is a lot of not very desirable retail and two-star hotels. It is going to be a slow burn, and I’d suggest looking to buy at the £1,500 to £1,800 per square foot level to make it work from an investment perspective.”
Fans of central London might sigh over its recent performance in capital growth terms, but they also agree that there are reasons to base yourself in the British capital that override its immediate investment potential.
Education has long been one of the UK’s major draws, and according to a new study its offering is the best in Europe, and amongst the best in the world. An analysis of higher education standards and lifestyle in 72 countries by Global Citizens Solutions, a relocation consultancy, has ranked Great Britain second in the world for students, looking at everything from university prestige to cost of living, crime rates and visa options. Only the USA scored higher.
The report comes as demand for international education is surging – in 2023 there were six million students studying abroad, found the report. This is forecast to top 10 million by 2030.
“Education, for all ages, is one of our ace cards,” said Dell, who is currently helping a young family relocate from Geneva to London specifically so they can access the city’s brilliant schools.
“Imperial, the LSE, UCL, Kings, they all attract a lot of wealthy overseas students, and their parents will rent or buy them a home in a very nice part of central London. Education is a key reason high net worth individuals are attracted to the city.”
Our clients were keen to buy a larger house in London, and very much wanted a home with lashings of historic charm. Their other key priorities were a good-sized garden and off-street parking – but they didn’t want to go right out into the suburbs to find it.
Our search for perfection took 14 months, and led us to a Grade I listed Georgian villa which was being sold off market by a boutique estate agent. Left to their own devices, it is doubtful our clients would ever have found it.
The original house was house built in 1879, but was extensively modernised by its previous owners to create a beautiful home and the perfect mix of traditional period features combined with impressive interior design. Our clients, a young professional couple with a young family, loved the contrast between the six bedroom property’s historic exterior and its modern interior.
And they were equally delighted when Black Brick was able to negotiate a seven-figure discount from the asking price.
Before sealing the deal, and because of the house’s age and location, Black Brick oversaw a tremendous amount of due diligence on the property. Despite that the deal – from our offer being accepted to exchange of contracts – took less than a month.
Our clients had this to say about their experience working with Black Brick:
“We could not have found our new home without you. I do not understand how anyone at this level can buy a house without a buying agent.” Mr and Mrs G.
Our clients needed help finding a family home with generous lateral spaces, high ceilings, and good transport links. With a very wide search area to play with we analysed their best choices, and found them a three bedroom lateral flat in one of north London’s most sought after urban villages.
We then secured them a £25,000 discount on the asking price, meaning they paid a fraction over £900 per square foot for the mansion flat.
We would be delighted to hear from you to discuss your own property requirements. For a non-obligatory consultation, please contact us.
